Lexis-Nexis: Palin AND Murkowski AND Primary

Washington Post, May 26, 2006:

After intense speculation, Alaska Gov. Frank H. Murkowski (R) announced Friday he would seek a second term to continue work on a natural gas pipeline that could become the largest construction effort in the nation.

"There's an unfinished job to do," Murkowski, 73, said, according to the Associated Press. "We've got the momentum, and I want to see it through."

But Murkowski, a 22-year veteran of the U.S. Senate, will face a two-pronged primary challenge in August from Wasilla Mayor Sarah Palin and businessman John Binkley of Fairbanks. The winner of the GOP primary will face either Democratic state Rep. Ethan Berkowitz or Democratic state Rep. Eric Croft in a race the Cook Political Report calls a toss-up.

Murkowski has come under fire for budget cuts early in his term and for appointing his daughter, Lisa Murkowski, to his Senate seat.

"Building the gas line is certainly the No. 1 priority of my administration," Murkowski said Friday, according to the AP.

August 21, 2006:

A defeat on Tuesday would make him the fourth incumbent to lose a primary election this month. On Aug. 8, Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (D-Conn.), Rep. Cynthia McKinney (D-Ga.) and Rep. John J.H. "Joe" Schwarz (R-Mich.) were defeated in primaries. Murkowski, who has been running third in recent public polls, may be headed for the same fate...

Despite the power of incumbency, Murkowski has struggled to raise money and has trailed former Wasilla mayor Sarah Palin and former state senator John Binkley in the battle for the Republican nomination.

Palin has positioned herself as the change candidate. Jean Craciun, an independent pollster, said Palin is drawing support from moderate and independent voters. Binkley, who is largely financing his own campaign, has spent more than $1 million on the primary and has more support from the Republican establishment.

Public polls in July by Craciun and on Aug. 14 by David Dittman, a former Murkowski adviser who quit the campaign several weeks ago, have shown Palin leading, with Binkley second and Murkowski third. Nonetheless, Scott said he thinks Murkowski can win. "What we've got essentially is a horserace," he said.

New York Times, August 23:

Gov. Frank H. Murkowski was decisively defeated in a Republican primary on Tuesday, a loss the governor interpreted as a rejection of his leadership style but one that also echoed an anti-incumbent mood elsewhere in the country.

Mr. Murkowski, 73, a former United States senator who left Washington in his fourth term to run for governor in 2002, won 19 percent of the vote in his bid for a second term, placing third in a three-way race, according to partial results released Wednesday.

42, a former mayor of the little town of Wasilla who rose to prominence as a whistle-blower uncovering ethical misconduct in state government, won the nomination for governor with 51 percent of the vote.

So, a few thoughts:

1. Even though Palin was in a three-way race, she won with 51 percent against two well-funded candidates, which suggests that she's a strong campaigner. (You don't crack a pure majority just by being likable and new, let alone pull away from a tightly grouped pack with institutional weight behind it.)
   
2. The natural gas pipeline, which she often gets credit for supporting against the interests of the oil companies, was Murkowski's project, and well underway. Moreover, she supported it in her campaign. It may have been tough to turn her backs on her supporters in the oil companies, but it would have been even tougher if she hadn't. Alaska voters had already tossed one governor out on his ear.
3. The news media and the Obama campaign would be wise to look at exactly how Palin won this primary and the subsequent election.
   

Here's A Thought

John McCain picked Sarah Palin because he needed something to 1) change the narrative, 2) make it harder for Democrats to take the ticket, 3) do anything, anything to avoid choosing Mitt Romney, and 4) turn a probable small loss into a possible win / possible big loss.

Again, if McCain is smart, he will convince the Republican party to open things up so he can freely criticize the Bush administration and Congress, and position himself and Palin as the mavericks who can reform the party by bringing it back to conservative principles: small government, unapologetic foreign policy, family values, and personal honor. You absolutely castigate Bush/Rumsfeld for not listening to you earlier on troop levels, and you make the strongest case you can against torture. You throw in a few new moves, to challenge the party to move forward on global warming and energy conservation, and maybe, MAYBE, even on immigration, and try to show that even while individual Republicans have fouled things up, the Democrats don't have any new ideas other than to raise taxes, enlarge government, and castrate our military. That's how you win independents; not through tokenist appeals. The advantage of Palin is that she made her bones calling out fellow Republicans too, and she has no ties to the past administration. In fact, her only advantage besides her personal likability is her credentials as a reformer (which is why Troopergate is such a horrible blemish).

But I doubt the Republican establishment will free him up to do that, and here's why. First, once you start throwing blame around, it's hard to stop, and a lot of people have a lot invested in the Bush administration. McCain would regain his friends in the press and the conservative magazines would no doubt be thrilled, but to most of the people who actually work in politics, he'd be confirming their worst suspicions about him, that he will burn them to the ground if it enhances his stature.

The second point is that the group most excited about Palin as VP candidate isn't moderate women, it's anti-abortion conservatives -- and I imagine they will still be pretty excited even if McCain can't beat Obama this time around. Here's why. Instantly, Sarah Palin becomes one of the best known Republicans in the country. Presumably, she retains her likability even if people don't think she's ready to be in that office.

She instantly becomes the new face and voice for the anti-abortion movement. Quick -- who speaks for the anti-abortion movement now? A lot of white, unlikable preachers, batshit House Republicans, and crazy-ass Supreme Court justices. And in high-level government, the old face was Rick Santorum. Rick, man-on-dog, bigoted, rip-your-throat out, named a disgusting sex byproduct after him Santorum, who was easiest to villify when he would say things like "birth control is degrading to women." Now it's Sarah Palin, a likable, tough, career woman who actually probably has at least been presented with the choice to have an abortion, and who refused.

That's how you get your movement jump-started again, and that's how you stop the bleeding of young Christian women out of the Republican party. Even if McCain loses, they have a direction again.

Ad Time

Eric Kleefield at Talking Points Memo has a proposal for campaigning against McCain/Palin:

A one-minute spot featuring Hillary Clinton herself, talking to the camera and laying into Palin on the issues, her complete lack of qualifications, and the temerity of the McCain campaign to think they could get away with this. Then she urges anyone watching who might have supported her to get out there and support Barack Obama.

Then it closes simply with Obama walking on to the set to shake Hillary's hand: "I'm Barack Obama, and I approved this message."

I definitely think Hillary makes a strong surrogate against Sarah Palin. But I think the ad would actually be stronger if it were less direct and more of an ensemble piece.

Here's my idea. You have an ad featuring five to seven women. They include some subset of Hillary Clinton, Amy Klobuchar, Kathleen Sebelius, and Stephanie Herseth Sandlin. They also include a schoolteacher, a firefighter, a mayor/city council president of a small but reasonably well-known town, and a woman who owns and runs her own business. Each is behind a different backdrop -- a wood-paneled office, on the streets of a busy city, in the middle of a wheat field, and so on. You have each of them tell part of their stories, with a title line identifying each, how they got started in their careers or in politics. And then you have each of them attack McCain and Palin -- not just Palin -- on a single issue. The business owner attacks them on the economy or health care, another attacks on choice, another on national security, another on social security, another on Iraq, and so on.

Faster and faster cuts, so that each appears to be finishing the last sentences. It builds to a refrain: "John McCain and Sarah Palin don't know how to fix our economy / they don't know how to make our country safer / they don't know how to educate our children," and so on. Then each of them urges America to vote for Barack Obama and Joe Biden. Finally "I'm Barack Obama, and I approved this message" is heard, over a black-and-white candid picture of Barack Obama with his wife and two daughters.

Finally, after America is reintroduced to each of these women through the ad, you send each of them -- the politicians, anyway -- out on cable news, Meet the Press, and the stump to rip the Republican ticket's guts out. You raise the profile of all the up-and-coming women in the Democratic party, especially in the midwest, and diminish Sarah Palin by comparison. But you never attack her directly. You tie her to McCain, and you tie them both to the Bush administration, corrupt Republican politics, and the conservative media machine. Bush, Cheney, Rove, and their cronies continue to be the millstone around John McCain's neck, and you leave no air in Sarah Palin to be his life jacket.

She becomes a nonentity, a cipher. She becomes Jack Kemp -- sure, she can throw a football, but the old man she's running with, despite his war record and years in the senate, has no clue how to solve our problems, nor does she have a clue how to help him.

Racist Barbecue

Even a diehard barbecue fan has to admit that something is up: "This most American of foods is precisely so American because Europeans adopted the cooking technology from the Indians they exterminated while giving the job of chef to the slaves they brought from Africa."

Listen Anew

Jeremy McCarter on the versatility of Obama's gift:

Someone should invite Barack Obama to give an explanation of particle physics while wrestling a gator. Short of that, I don't what could make him give a flat or faltering speech. The oratorical challenges that life has thrown at him over the last four years—the 2004 convention, the race speech, Berlin—have given chance after chance to flop, but the man seems incapable of doing so. Thursday night's challenge was one of the tallest: bringing the Democratic National Convention to a crescendo without providing fodder for those who think him a preening, grandiose celebrity. So he took his inside voice with him to the cavernous Invesco Field, and used it to deliver what might be the most intimate talk ever offered to a crowd of 80,000.

Obama described the speech as "workmanlike." That's true, in the sense that it didn't have the rhetorical flights of some of his previous talks. But it also implies a level of strain, of visible effort, nowhere in evidence. (It sounded workmanlike only in the way that Tiger Woods going eight under for the round is workmanlike.)

He needed all his gifts for this one, beginning with the agile, dynamic voice—an instrument that lets him, like a singer with a four-octave range, hit notes and make tonal shifts unavailable to the rest of us. "What the naysayers don't understand is that this election has never been about me," he said, using a pianissimo note to draw people closer, before booming: "It's about you." There's also the sheer quality of the writing, not just the arc and the rhythmic drive of the overall speech, but little flecks of language, as when he described the promise of a democracy "where we can find the strength and grace to bridge divides and unite in common effort." Grace, the unexpectedly delicate word, recasts the whole sentence, makes you listen anew.

McCarter's essay (which goes on to some sharp criticism of the convention as a whole) is a Newsweek "web exclusive"; it clearly belongs in the magazine.

Let's Geek Out

Okay, enough politics for a minute. Engadget's got a patent filing from Apple for an oversized touchscreen tablet. Oh, this boy can dream.

The Way Forward

Okay, here's how you continue to hit McCain with Palin on the ticket.

As of the end of July, Alaska has 6.8% unemployment, tied for 46th in the nation: only California, Mississippi, Rhode Island, and Michigan have a higher unemployment rate. Its per capita income is 29,600 per year, 40th in the nation.

So John McCain has already said that he doesn't understand economics; he can't remember how many houses he owns; and he wants to continue the Bush tax and economic plan, even though he could see in 2001 and 2002 that the tax and budget plans were reckless.

And as his Vice President, he's chosen someone with only two years of executive experience in a state with a tiny population whose only industries are oil, tourism, fishing, timber, mining, and agriculture, a state with no sales or income tax revenue -- they've benefitted greatly by adding a windfall oil profits tax -- with one of the worst rates of employment and per-capita income in the country.

These are the people you would trust to lead the U.S. economy into the 21st-century?

Change Comes From The Bottom Up

No way for the AP wire to spin this:

NEW YORK (AP) - Barack Obama's acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention was seen by more than 38 million people.

Nielsen Media Research said more people watched Obama speak than watched the Olympics opening ceremony in Beijing, the final "American Idol" or the Academy Awards this year. Obama talked before a live audience of 80,000 people in Denver.

His TV audience nearly doubled the amount of people who watched John Kerry accept the Democratic nomination to run against President Bush four years ago. Kerry's speech was seen by just over 20 million people.

Obama's audience might be higher, since Nielsen didn't have an estimate for how many people watched Obama on PBS or C-SPAN Thursday night.

So -- 40 million? Maybe more? In prime time, when TV's stars come out to shine?

More people than voted in the Democratic primaries and caucuses. 2/3 of the number of people who voted in the 2004 Presidential election.

It's harder to get people out to vote than it is to get them to turn on the television. But if McCain's people thought that by announcing their VP pick this afternoon, that most people wouldn't catch the speech and that nobody would be talking or thinking about the convention any more, they were dead wrong.

Mrs Palin

I didn't know who Sarah Palin was before this morning -- but it seems like a smart pick for McCain in a lot of ways.

McCain's biggest obstacle is his ties to George Bush and the Republican administration of the past eight years. His best bet is to go to the convention calling for a return to Republican virtue, like Brutus going to the Senate to kill Caesar. Cast himself as Teddy Roosevelt, Barry Goldwater, and Ronald Reagan, coming to return his party from the wilderness of excessive spending, incompetent war management, torture, and corruption. Palin, who has no ties at all to the Bush administration or even the Republican establishment in Alaska, lets him do that. He can be the conservative insurgent against an unconservative administration -- and appeal to the disaffected conservatives who think that the mistake of the Bush administration is that it wasn't conservative enough.

Essentially he has to argue that while the Republicans have erred, the Democrats haven't developed anything new to offer the American people. Their platform is the same the Democrats have always run on; higher taxes, bigger government programs, protectionism, throwing up the border, trying to legislate against family values. He has to do what Al Gore did, in running against his predecessor -- except there's a lot more meat for McCain to do it.

Barack Obama showed everyone with his speech last night that he is a dangerous man, serious and ready to bring the fight. Sarah Palin, frankly, doesn't come off that way, but maybe she doesn't need to. She can be the Reaganesque "Morning in America" optimist, looking to the future, to the American West, to the new economy workers of Colorado and Nevada, the blue-collar "hockey moms" of Minnesota and the Dakotas, the "feminists for life" represented by Elizabeth Hasselbeck on The View.

If the Democrats win, it will be -- in part -- because they come across as the serious campaign against the sideshow, the cranky old man and the lightweight. It will also be because Americans really do want to get out of Iraq, that they really are looking for new solutions to our energy crisis, and they no longer trust Republicans, any Republicans, to run the government. It was also be because Barack Obama is big time, and McCain/Palin really isn't. Obama's called out the Republicans for making big elections about small things, and if that's the standard that everyone holds both parties to, I think the Democrats will win. But make no mistake -- this will be a different election from the one we thought we might get.

Short Convention Notes

1. My God, I've never seen Al Gore talk so fast.
2. You know Barack Obama came to adulthood in the eighties, because Michael freaking McDonald is singing. Singing "America the Beautiful" like Ray Charles's untalented supporting act.
3. Roy Gross from the Detroit Teamsters Local just got up and said "Things were pretty good for working-class families in Detroit until the Bush administration." Not that he didn't make things work, but...
4. My miracle walking baby is asleep, so now I can watch every minute. Until the delivery guy from Mandarin Garden shows up.
5. The man himself walks on stage. Still no duck.
6. This stadium is amazing. And Barack's is the first voice that seems to fill the room.
7. "We are better than these last eight years." Let's count the seconds until Bill Kristol or Brit Hume spins this one.
8. "I don't know about you, but I'm not ready to take a ten percent chance on change." Put this against Kerry's "Ninety percent of George Bush is more than we can take."
9. "I don't believe McCain doesn't care.... I believe he doesn't know." Another great meme.
10. "They call this the ownership society, but what it really means is that you're on your own... Well, it's time for them to own their failure."
11. MMM. Duck.
12. I don't remember equal pay for equal work being a big theme in the primaries, but it's a nice drum to beat -- rallies the older female Hilary supporters, paints McCain as against fairness and as a relic of the past.
13. Amazing slow-play of MLK.
14. Therefore, my brothers, since we have confidence to enter the sanctuary by the blood of Jesus, the new and living way that he opened for us through the curtain (that is, through his flesh), and since we have a great high priest over the household of God, let us continue to come near with sincere hearts in the full assurance that faith provides, because our hearts have been sprinkled clean from a guilty conscience, and our bodies have been washed with pure water. Let us continue to hold firmly to the hope that we confess without wavering, for the one who made the promise is faithful. And let us continue to consider how to motivate one another to love and good deeds, not neglecting to meet together, as is the habit of some, but encouraging one another even more as you see the day of the Lord coming nearer. For if we choose to go on sinning we learned the full truth, there no longer remains a sacrifice for sins, but only a terrifying prospect of judgment and a raging fire that will consume the enemies of God. (Hebrews 10: 19-27)
15. I just switched from CSPAN to PBS to catch some commentary, and David Brooks was pretty tough on Obama -- Brooks wasn't wowed, Obama didn't show enough emotion, it was a mistake to go outside and separate himself from the crowd. And compared to Joe Biden's speech, Obama's was quite a bit cooler. I actually wonder whether Obama and Biden are actually going to continue to play against type in this campaign. The CW says that Obama will be the young, charismatic idealist while Biden will be the hard-headed policy wonk and attack dog. And Biden might hit back tougher than Obama will -- I love the "go out and bloody their nose so you can walk down the street" ethic. But at least so far, Joe Biden has been the beating heart of the ticket, looser, warmer, emotionally resonant, while Obama is becoming -- by reason of necessity and reversing the narrative, but also I think out of his preparation and his own process of putting on his game face -- firmer, more directed, tougher, less a painting of a dream of the future than an arrow shooting forward into it. If he's going to win, he's got to take a shot at the title, and he knows it.
16. Also, Obama's rhetoric is being and will be judged on an incredible curve here. Anytime someone describes Hilary Clinton's speech as "incandescent" and Obama's as "a disappointment" (as Julianne Malveaux just did) is leaning on the scales.
17. It's also becoming clear as I watch Tavis Smiley that a sizable chunk of the black intelligentsia -- particularly of the baby boom generation -- is by necessity going to be hypercritical of Obama as he by necessity is going to have to keep his distance from them. I'm looking at you, Dr. West.
18. As a speechwriter and speaker, Obama is particularly good at avoiding cliches. He could have quoted the same verse of Romans 1 Corinthians that we hear at every wedding on faith, hope, and love; he quoted Hebrews instead, and this was a Hebrews speech -- intricate and tightly argued, aimed at persuading the toughest-minded critics that Obama is the real thing. Likewise, he could have trotted out any of the familiar lines of Dr. King's "I Have A Dream Speech," but instead he opted for "We cannot walk alone. And as we walk, we must make the pledge that we shall always march ahead. We cannot turn back." Julianne Malveaux took a shot at Obama for referring to King as "a young preacher from Georgia" -- "he wouldn't even say Dr. King's name!" -- but I think what Obama was trying to do is to reinforce the notion he invoked at the beginning of the speech and again at the end that "at defining moments like this one, the change we need doesn't come from Washington. Change comes to Washington." Dr. King doesn't become the unassailable icon, the leader any politician, no matter how conservative, can invoke for his opposition to violence or his "content of character." He becomes another one of the ordinary people doing extraordinary things, a man for his moment, a focal point for the energies and imaginations of millions of Americans. We cannot walk alone, we shall always march ahead, we cannot turn back. I'll spell out what Obama didn't: Change is marching on Washington. Parse that both ways.